BANA2082 Modules 5 & 6

The company identified in Chapter 8, Analytics in Action, is

ACCO Brands

The Analytics in Action example in Chapter 8 concerned

sales forecasting.

Chapter 8 focuses on

forecasting.

A set of observations on a variable measured at successive points in time or over successive periods of time constitute a _____.

time series

Which of the following states the objective of time series analysis?

To uncover a pattern in a time series and then extrapolate the pattern into the future

Trend refers to _____.

the long-run shift or movement in the time series observable over several periods of time.

A time series plot of a period of time (in weeks) versus sales (in 1,000s of gallons) is shown in the attachment below. Which of the following data patterns best describes the scenario shown?

Time series with a horizontal pattern

A time series plot of a period of time (in years) versus sales (in thousands of dollars) is shown in the attachment below. Which of the following data patterns best describes the scenario shown?

Linear trend pattern

A time series plot of a period of time (in months) versus sales (in thousands of dollars) is shown in the attachment below. Which of the following data patterns best describes the scenario shown?

Seasonal pattern

_____ is the amount by which the predicted value differs from the observed value of the time series variable.

Forecast error

If the forecasted value of the time series variable for period 2 is 22.5 and the actual value observed for period 2 is 25, what is the forecast error in period 2?

2.5

A positive forecast error indicates that the forecasting method _____ the dependent variable.

underestimated

Which of the following measures of forecast accuracy is susceptible to the problem of positive and negative forecast errors offsetting one another?

Mean forecast error

Demand for a product and the forecasting departments forecast (na�ve model) for a product are shown below in the attached file. Compute the mean absolute error.

2

Demand for a product and the forecasting departments forecast (na�ve model) for a product are shown below. Compute the mean squared error.

4.67

Suppose for a particular week, the forecasted sales were 4,000. The actual sales were 3,000. What is the value of the mean absolute percentage error?

33.3%

The moving averages method refers to a forecasting method that _____.

uses the average of the most recent data values in the time series as the forecast for the next period

The moving averages and exponential smoothing methods are appropriate for a time series exhibiting _____.

horizontal pattern

Using a large value for order k in the moving averages method is effective in _____.

smoothing out random fluctuations

With reference to exponential forecasting models, a parameter that provides the weight given to the most recent time series value in the calculation of the forecast value is known as the

smoothing constant

The exponential smoothing forecast for period t + 1 is a weighted average of the _____.

actual value in period t with weight ?? and the forecast for period t with weight 1 ? ??

Autoregressive models _____.

occur whenever all the independent variables are previous values of the time series

A time series with a seasonal pattern can be modeled by treating the season as a _____.

dummy variable

A causal model provides evidence of _____between an independent variable and the variable to be forecast.

an association

The value of an independent variable from the prior period is referred to as a _____.

lagged variable

For causal modeling, _____ are used to detect linear or nonlinear relationships between the independent and dependent variables.

scatter charts

The company identified in Chapter 10, Analytics in Action, is

Proctor & Gamble

The Analytics in Action example in Chapter 10 concerned

inventory analysis

Chapter 10 focuses on

spreadsheet models

Spreadsheet models are referred to as what-if models because they _____.

allow easy instantaneous recalculation for a change in model inputs

The modeling process begins with the framing of a _____ model that shows the relationships between the various parts of the problem being modeled.

conceptual

A(n) _____ is a visual representation that shows which entities affect others in a model.

influence diagram

With reference to a spreadsheet model, an uncontrollable model input is known as a(n) _____.

parameter

A(n) _____ refers to a model input that can be controlled in a spreadsheet model.

decision variable

Which of the following design guidelines, if followed, enables the user to update the model parameters without the risk of mistakenly creating an error in a formula?

Separating the parameters from the spreadsheet model

An Excel _____ quantifies the impact of changing the value of a specific input on an output of interest.

Data Table

A one-way data table summarizes _____.

a single inputs impact on the output of interest

The impact of two inputs on the output of interest is summarized by a _____.

two-way data table

Excels _____ tool allows the user to determine the value of an input cell that will cause the value of a related output cell to equal some specified value

Goal Seek

The _____ function pairs each element of the first array with its counterpart in the second array, multiplies the elements of the pairs together, and adds the results.

SUMPRODUCT

The arguments supplied to the IF function, in order, are the condition for execution, _____.

the result if condition is true, and the result if condition is false

The condition that VLOOKUP assumes is that _____.

the first column of the table is sorted in ascending order.

The VLOOKUP with range set to _____ takes the first argument and searches the first column of the table for the last row that is strictly less than the first argument.

TRUE

The _____ button, located in the Formula Auditing group, creates arrows pointing to the selected cell from cells that are part of the formula in that cell.

Trace Precedents

Arrows pointing from the selected cell to cells that depend on the selected cell are generated by using the _____ button of the Formula Auditing group.

Trace Dependents

The calculations of a cell can be investigated in great detail by using the _____ button.

Evaluate Formula

The user can monitor how listed cells change with a change in the model without searching through the worksheet or changing from one worksheet to another by using the _____ functionality.

Watch Window