Forecast: _______
_______: a statement about the future value of a variable of interest
Ch 3
Forecasts in groups are ______ accurate than those for individual items
Forecasts in _____ are more accurate than those for individual items
Ch 3
Forecast accuracy ______ as the forecasting horizon increases
Forecast accuracy decreases as the forecasting horizon __________.
Ch 3
Steps in the Forecasting Process:
1)
2)
3)
4)
5)
6)
Steps in the _______ Process:
1) Determine purpose
2) Establish a time horizon
3) Select a technique
4) Obtain and analyze data
5) Make it
6) Monitor it (check, change, accuracy)
Ch 3
Error = ______ - _______
______ = Actual - Forecast
Ch 3
The Mean Absolute Deviation weights _________.
Mean Squared Error weights __________.
Mean Absolute Percent Error weights _________.
The ________ weights all errors evenly.
The ________ weights errors according to their squared values.
The ________ weights errors according to relative error.
Ch 3
Quantitative Approaches:
Time series: ______________
Associative models: ________________ (example: _________)
Both rely on _________.
__________ Approaches:
___________: projection of historical data (changes over time)
___________: development of methods that attempt to use causal variables to make a forecast (i.e.: house buying: # beds, baths, etc).
_______ rely (relies) on hard data.
Judgemental Forecasts: __________________
Delphi technique: _____________
___________________: uses subjective inputs such as opinions from consumer surveys, sales staff, managers, executives, and experts.
__________: questionnaires answered anonymously by knowledgeable people
Ch 3
Time-Series Forecasts: ___________________
_____________: a time-ordered sequence of observations taken at regular time intervals
Ch 3
Trend: _________ (ex: ______)
Seasonality: ____________ (ex: ________)
________: a long term upward or downward movement in data (ex: population shifts, changing income)
________: short term, fairly regular variations related to the calendar or time of day (ex: retail stores, movie theaters, anything with seasonal demand)
Ch
Cycle: ____________
Random Variation: _____________
Irregular Variation: _____________
________: wavelike variations lasting more than a year
________: residual variation that remains after all other behaviors have been accounted for
________: due to unusual circumstances that do not reflect typical behavior (ie: strikes, weather)
Ch 3
Naive Forecast: _________________
The forecast for a time period is equal to __________.
Can be used when there is:
1)
2)
3)
____________: uses a single previous value of a time series as the basis for a forecast
The forecast for a time period is ______ to the previous time period's value.
_________:
1) time series stability
2) trend
3) seasonality
Ch 3
Moving Average: __________
The fewer the data points that are used, the _____ responsive to the changes.
(Time Series)
___________: averages a number of the most recent actual values
The _______ the data points that are used, the more ____________.
Ch 3
Weighted Moving Average: _________________
(Time Series)
___________: the most recent values in a time series are given more weight in computing a forecast
Ch 3
Exponential Smoothing: _________________
The larger the number, the ________ error.
The closer to _______, the greater the smoothing.
(Time Series)
___________: a weighted averaging method based on the previous forecast plus a percentage of the forecast error
The _______ the number, the larger the error.
The closer to zero, the greater the _________.
Ch 3
Focus Forecasts: ____________
(Time Series)
___________: applying several methods to the last several periods and choosing the one with the highest accuracy
Ch 3
Diffusion Models: ______________
Based on:
1)
2)
3)
4)
(Time Series)
___________: used when historical data is not available
Based on:
1) adoption rates/ usage of other similar products
2) market potential
3) attention from mass media
4) word of mouth
Ch 3
Trend: Linear and Non Linear
Non-Linear Equations:
1) Parabolic
2) Exponential
3) Growth curve trend
Do not need to know calculations, just have a general idea of what they are
Ch 3
Regression: _____________
Steps for solving on calc:
1)
2)
3)
4)
____________: a technique for fitting a line to a set of data points
Solving on a calc:
1) 2nd, Data
2) enter X and Y values (leave one line blank after)
3) 2nd, Stat
4) Arrow down- "a" and "b" values (y=a+b(x)), "r" (r=correlation: square to get percenta
Standard Error of Estimate: _________________
The smaller the standard error, the ______ the accuracy.
__________: measure of the scatter of points around a regression line
The ______ the error, the greater the accuracy.
Ch 3
Simple Linear Regression Assumptions:
1) Variations around the line are ______
2) Deviations around the ______ should be normally distributed
3) ______ are made only within the range of observed values
Simple Linear Regression Assumptions:
1) ______ around the line are random
2) ________ around the average value should be ______ distributed
3) Predictions are made only _____ the range of _______.
Ch 3
Reactive Approach: ________
Proactive Approach: _________
________: reacts to demand
________: seeks to actively influence demand
Ch 3
The driving forces for product & service design are ________ & _________.
4 Key Questions:
1)
2)
3)
4)
The driving forces for _________ are opportunities and threats.
4 Key Questions:
1) Is there Demand for it?
2) Can we do it?
3) What level of Quality is important?
4) Does it make Sense from an Economic Standpoint?
Ch 4
Sustainability:
Life Cycle Assessment: ___________ (aka: _____)
ISO 14000: _______
_________
__________: the assessment of the environmental impact of a product/ service throughout its useful life (also called the Cradle to Grave)
______ : prestigious award given to companies that meet strict environmental specifications
Ch4
The time to start redesigning a product is at the beginning of the _____ stage.
The time to start redesigning a product is at the _____ of the maturity stage.
Ch 4
Delayed Differentiation: _______________
Modular Design: ______________
_______: process of producing, but not quite completing, a product/ service until customer preferences are known
_______: form of standarization in which component parts are grouped into modules that are easily replaced/ interchanged
Ch 4
Reliability: ________________
____________: the set of conditions under which an item's reliability is specified.
______: abillity of a product to perform its intended function under a prescribed set of conditions
Normal Operating Conditions: ________________
Ch 4
Analyzing the market, economy and technical aspects is part of the ____________ stage of design/ development.
________, ________, and ________ are part of the Feasibility Analysis stage of design/ development.
Ch 4
Designing
Concurrent Engineering: ______________
Computer Assisted Design: ____________ (increases ____)
Design for Assembly is where they focus on ________, where Design for Manufacturing is where they focus on ________.
Designing
__________: bringing engineering and manufacturing sides together to design a product
_________: uses computer graphics (increases productivity)
______ is where they focus on reducing the number of parts, where ________ is where they focus on wh
Component Commonality is when products ______________.
_________ is when products share a lot of similarity in features/ components and a part can be used in multiple products.
Ch 4
Quality Fuction Deployment: _________
(ex: __________)
________: integrates the "customer voice" into the product and service design/ deployment
(ex: House of Quality)
Ch 4
The idea of the Kano Model is that _____________.
3 Types of quality:
1)
2)
3)
The idea of the __________ is that customer perceptions of quality is often different from the view that "more is better."
3 Types:
1) Basic quality (every car has it)
2) Performance quality (competition)
3) Excitement quality (luxuries/ gadgets)
Ch 4
When you are over capacity, ___________. If you are under capacity, ___________.
Goal: _______
When you are _______, operating costs are too high. If you are ______, then you will have strained resources and possibly lose customers.
The Goal: to eliminate both.
Ch 5
Design Capacity: ____________ (is ____, _____)
Effective Capacity: ____________ (is ________)
Actual Output: ___________ (is ____, ______. Ex: ______)
_______: maximum output rate or service capacity something is designed for (is idealistic, exaggerated)
_______: design capacity - allowances (such as personal time, breaks) (is more realistic- formalized/ adjusted)
_______: rate of output actually achiev
Formula for:
Efficiency: _______ / _______
Utilization: _______ / _______
Efficiency generates higher values because ______________.
___________ = Actual Output / Effective Capacity
___________ = Actual Output / Design Capacity
________ generates higher values because the denominator is smaller
Ch 5
Capacity Cushion: ________
Formula: ________
Capacity Alternatives are when you _________. One example is _________.
_______: the extra capacity used to offset demand uncertainty
= 100% - Utilization
_________ are when you find other ways to enhance capacity- "big picture approach." An example is when a snowboard company makes snowboards in the summer and skateboards in
Bottleneck Operation: _____________
Your maximum capacity is ______ to the output of your slowest operation.
_________: an operation in a sequence of operations whose capacity is lower than that of the others
Your _____ is equal to the output of your _________.
Ch 5
Economies of Scale: _____________
Diseconomies of Scale: _____________
_________: the more you buy, the less it costs to buy/ produce per unit
_________: if output is more than optimal level, increasing output further increases the average per unit costs (people quit or get sick, machines break)
Ch 5
Constraint Management: identifying _______ and __________!
Constraint: ________
________: identifying bottlenecks and removing them!
________: something that limits the performance of a process or system in achieving its goals
Ch 5
Cost-Volume Analysis (all the stuff from Accounting): focuses on the relationship between cost, revenue, and volume of output
The profit at the break even point is ________.
If TC and TR lines don't intersect, then _________.
Cost Volume Analysis (all the stuff from Accounting): focuses on the relationship between cost, revenue, and volume of output
The profit at the _______ is zero.
If ___ & ___ lines don't intersect, then costs are higher than revenues and you're effed.
Ch 5
The slope of the revenue line is based on ______.
The slope of the cost line is based on ______.
The slope of the ______ line is based on the purchase price/ unit.
The slope of the _____ line is based on the cost/ unit.
Ch 5
Capital Intensity: _________
Process Flexibility: _________
______: the mix of equip and labor that will be used
______: degree to which the syst can be adjusted to changes in processing requirements (design, volume, technology)
Ch 6
Job Shops produce _____ customizable products where Projects products are _______.
List the Types of Processing in order from most customized to most standardized:
1)
2)
3)
4)
5)
The more customizable, the more ________.
_____ produce highly customizable products where _______ products are highly standardized.
Listed in order from ______ to _______:
1) Job Shops
2) Batch
3) Repetitive
4) Continuous
5) Project
The more customizable, the ____ flexibility.
Ch 6
Pros and Cons of Automation:
Pros and Cons of _______:
Pros: good for consumers, lower cost, can be safer for employees, great if done logically
Cons: bad for consumers if too advanced, sucks if people lose their jobs
Ch 6
Product Layout: _______________
Pros: low unit cost, high output, labor specialization, highly efficient
Cons: dull and repetitive for employee, susceptible to shutdowns, inflexible
__________: uses standardized processing operations to achieve smooth, rapid, high-volume flow
Pros: ________
Cons: ________
Ch 6
Process Layout: ______________
Pros: not super vulnerable to shutdowns, less costly than product layout
Cons: in-process invent can be high, equip utilization low, slower and more inefficient
_________: can handle varied processing requirements
Pros: _______
Cons: ________
Ch 6
______ & ______ would use Process Layouts
______ & _______ would use Product Layouts
Fixed position layouts are when __________. Example: ______.
Job Shop & Batch Processes would use ______ layouts.
Repetitive and Continuous Processes would use ______ layouts.
________ layouts are when the assembly materials are brought specifically to one designated area for the product to be built in. Example: ho
Flexible Manufacturing System: _______________ (i.e. _____)
Computer Integrated Manufacturing: ___________ (i.e. _____)
______: a group of machines designed to handle intermittent processing requirements and produce a variety of similar products (i.e. robots)
______: system for linking broad range of manuf activities through an integrated computer syst (i.e. purchasing, or
Line Balancing: _________________
_________: max time allowed at each station. Operating Time per Day / Desired Output Rate
The _______ establishes the output rate of a line.
_______: the process of tasks to workstations where they have almost equal time requirements
Cycle Time: _________
The cycle time establishes the ________ of a line.
Ch 6
Heuristic Rules for Precedence in Workstations:
1)
2)
Heuristic Rules for ___________:
Assign tasks in order of:
1) most following tasks
2) greatest positional weight