Why is risk important in engineering?
Nearly all technologies come with risk, or at least a perceived risk by the public
Examples of risk importance in engineering
-Nuclear power plants thought to be dangerous at their introduction (70s/80s)
-Not dangerous per say, but there is risk involved, like fukushima, Harrisburg (3 mile island), and chernobyl
Also
-Cell phones E&M radiation believed to cause cancer in the 90s
Objective Risk
The objective risk of an activity X depends on how likely some negative event is to actually occur
EX: Betting $1000 on red in roulette is ~50% chance of losing $1000
Subjective Risk
AKA perceived risk, depends on what you BELIEVE about the world
Ex: Betting $1000 on red and you believe that the Casino has rigged the wheel to go to black, increasing risk
(T/F) Subjective risks are kind of like irrational fears
False
Just because subjective risk is not always equal to objective risk does not mean they are irrational
Even the best scientists sometimes under or overestimate objective risks
EX: DDT perceived to be safe, turned out to be toxic
How many principles are involved in evaluating risk?
Two
Risk-benefit Principle
Weigh the benefits against the costs
The Precautionary Principle
Better safe than sorry
Some severe risks cannot be outweighed by any large benefits
Which of the following are important distinctions for risk analysis? Choose all that apply
1. Subjective and Objective Risk
2. Precautionary and Risk-benefit principles
3. Personal and impersonal risk
4. future and past risk
1 and 2
The risk benefit principle uses...
1. The perception of consumers to evaluate the risk of a given situation or technology
2. Quantitative information for weighing the benefits of a risk against its costs
3. Historical data to compare the risk between simi
2
Which of the following generated widespread concern about the risk of technology in the 1970s and 80s?
1. Climate Change
2. The dawn of the internet
3. Nuclear Power
4. Commercial Air travel
3
When analyzing risk using the basic notion that it is better to be safe than sorry, engineers are employing the __________
Precautionary Principle
This is the dominant principle of risk analysis in Europe
The likeliness that a negative event will actually occur is called ______ risk
Objective
John thinks that there is a 50% chance of injury if he rides the ferris wheel. The actual risk of injury on the rise is much lower, however. What can be said of John's thoughts regarding the situation?
1. His sense of subjective risk is greater than the o
1
Criticism of risk-benefit principle include
The numbers used have large uncertainties
Can the value assignments really be determined? Value of a human life? Shouldn't we spend the money if it means saving someone?
Allais' Paradox
No matter how much or little you care about money, the risk-benefit principle recommends you maximize expected value
(1-2) = (3-4) for the lotteries
Cannot prefer simultaneously both 1 to lottery 2 and lottery 4 to lottery 3 without violating risk-benefit
Which of the following are common objections made against risk-benefit analysis? Choose all that apply.
1. Risk-benefit analysis favors caution over innovation and hinders the implementation of new technologies
2. It seems morally problematic to assign mo
2,4
Which of these is NOT a common criticism of the Risk-benefit Principle?
1. The risk-benefit principle prevents progress because the calculations involved make it impossible to introduce novel designs
2. The numbers used in a risk-benefit analysis are very
1
(T/F) A fundamental problem with the risk-benefit analysis is that the principle of maximizing expected value is based sole on human intuitions
False
The principle of maximizing expected value can suggest choices that run against ordinary intuition
(T/F) Someone who subscribed to the precautionary principle believes that safety and the avoidance of risk often outweigh the potential benefits that taking a risk may offer
False
The lottery experiment conducted by economist Maurice Allais indicates that...
1. The precautionary principle is incompatible with risk analysis
2. The principle of maximizing expected value sometimes calls for individuals to make counter-intuitive choice
2.
People were much more likely to choose options that were not recommended by the principle of maximizing expected value
The exact risk that a new pesticide X will have on people or the environment is uncertain. Rather than quantify the known risks, we are better off to not allow it to enter the market until the risks are more fully understood." This statement best illustr
2
(T/F) Although a human life has no precise monetary value, even a precautionary analysis would consider it irrational to spend enormous sums of money preventing a statistical death.
True
While precautionary principle takes very seriously any risk to human life , regardless of the potential benefit, it would not recommend absurd to truly over-burdensome precautions to avoid such an event
(T/F) The principle of maximizing expected value holds that we must always be willing to accept a risk if the benefits of doing so are large enough
True
IS there a universal accepted definition of the precautionary principle?
NO
closest thing is RIO declaration by United Nations
According to the UN, the precautionary principle is
where there are threats of serious or irreversible damage, lack of full scientific certainty shall not be used as a reason for postponing cost-effective measures to prevent environmental degradation.
Alternative formulation of precautionary principle (wingspread statement)
When an activity raises threats of harm to human health or the environment, precautionary measures should be taken even if some cause and effect relationships are not fully established scientifically.
Which of the following options completes the "Wingspread statement" of the precautionary principle: "When an activity raises threats of harm to human health or the environment,
precautionary measures should be taken..."
a. "...only if the cost of doing so
d
(T/F) Instead of calculating probabilities, engineers employing the precautionary principle need only establish whether a sufficiently bad outcome will definitely occur unless some precautionary measure is taken.
False