What is a definition of offender profiling?
� A method of identifying characteristics of
perpetrator of a crime based on an analysis of the nature of the offence and the manner in which it was committed.
� Various aspects of the criminal's personality makeup are indicated by their choice of actions
What are the types of crimes most appropriate for psychological profiling?
Contact crimes
What are examples of contact crimes?
� Sadistic torture in sexual assaults
� Evisceration - disembowelling
� Post-mortem slashing and cutting
� Motiveless fire setting
� Lust and Mutilation murder
� Rape
� Satanic and ritualistic crime
� Paedophilia
What is the basic premise of profiling?
� What + How + When + Where + Why = Who
What principles do profilers use in order to proceed through their equation?
behavioural, correlational and other
psychodynamic principles of psychology
What are the main two core objectives of psychological profiling?
� To reduce the scope of an investigation
� To reduce the problem of information
overload
What happened in the yorkshire ripper case>
� 268,000 names
� 27,000 home visits
� 5,400,000 vehicle registration numbers
� Total cost = �4,000,000
� To permit strategic allocation of resources
� To assist in the linkage of crimes
� To predict future offences
What may profiling reduce?
The necessary learning process
inherent in investigating serial offending
What may profiling assist with?
The identification of false confessions
What may profiling distinguish between?
The target offender's crime and copy cat crimes
What may profiling ease?
The burden of public fear, media interest and political pressure
What are the core variables in the social and psychological assessment of offenders?
� Age, Race, Gender, Employment, Marital
Status, Religion, Education
� Reaction to Police Questioning
� Degree of Sexual Maturity
In the social and psychological assessment of offenders, what information and predictors are needed?
� Information relating to psychological traits
revealed at the crime scene
� Predictions for future offences
Why does a psychological evaluation of the belongings found in possession of the suspected offenders help?
� Can be used to aid understanding how
certain possessions tie the suspect to the
crime
� Predicting what items a suspect is likely to
have in their possession, e.g. crime scene
souvenirs, photographs etc.
� Physical evidence can be invaluable at the
tria
What are two strategies for interviewing suspected offenders when they are apprehended?
Minimisation
Maximisation
What is the bedrock of offender profiling?
Linkage analysis
What is linkage analysis also know as?
Comparative case analysis and behavioural case linkage
What is linkage analysis?
Refers to the investigative decision process of deciding whether two or more crimes are committee by the same offender(s) based on the MO
What evidence is preferred in linkage analysis but why is it not always good?
Harsh physical evidence (DNA, finger/foot prints)
Often absent or inconclusive
In the absence of hard evidence, what evidence is preferable?
Based on observable behaviour and crime
scene actions rather than motivations
What did Grubin et al 1997 say about linkage blindness?
Might result in preventable victimisation
What did Winter et al 2013 say about linkage analysis?
Incorrect links may mean that
investigative resources are unwisely allocated
Why did Santtila et al 2005 say there were 2 reasons for using crime linkage?
� Reduce the number of potential suspects
� Accumulate evidence concerning a particular offender (assists with successful prosecution)
What are the four steps in the process of crime linkage?
� Choice of behaviours (offence features) that appear to be relevant for detecting similar offences
� Evaluating the similarities and differences between the retrieved offences (known as salient point charts)
� Activity
� In small groups, generate a list
What are the two fundamental assumptions of behavioural crime linkage?
Consistency
Variability
Why is there often consistency in crimes?
The way an offender commits each
crime - so similarity across related crime scenes. Thus the burglar's behaviour is deemed to stem more from the offender than from situational/contextual factors.
Why is there often variability in crimes?
No two offenders are likely to behave in
the same way. Thus the variance within a series of offences must be less than the random set of offences
What technology have the police developed to facilitate linkage in the policing context?
Computerized crime linkage systems that contain offence, offender, and victim
information, which has been extracted from
investigative files (e.g., Collins, et al. 1998).
What is the ViCLAS?
Violent Crime Linkage Analysis System (ViCLAS) - is the most frequently used of all linkage systems and is generally considered the "gold standard" (Collins et al., 1998)
What do the systems provide as well as crime linkage?
They also provide the means to evaluate the effectiveness of an investigation.
What are the four assumptions provided by Bennell et al 2012 that must hold true if the systems are to be effected/
� data in the systems can be coded reliably
� data in the systems are accurate
� serial offenders' exhibit consistent, but distinctive patterns of behaviour
� analysts have the ability to use the data in the systems to link crimes accurately
How did Bennell et al 2012 conclude their critical review?
They argue that there is no compelling empirical support for any of the four assumptions and they outline a proposed research agenda for testing each assumption.
What approach do the FBI use?
Inductive approach
What is the inductive approach?
� Examine the crime scene, the location, the
style of the offence - details will reflect
offender characteristics
� Methodological approach - 'brainstorming
and intuition'.
Who described the inductive approach as a top down approach, saying it was viewed in light of the investigators previous experience of criminal behaviour?
Boon and Davis (1992)
What are the four points in the FBI profiling process?
Data assimilation
Crime classification
Crime reconstruction
Profile Generation
What is data assimilation in FBI profiling process?
Data compiled from police reports, post mortems, crime scene photos etc.
What is crime classification in FBI profiling process?
Profilers decide whether the crime scene is organised or disorganised
What is crime reconstruction in FBI profiling process?
Hypotheses about crime sequence, offender & victim behaviour etc.
What is profile generation in FBI profiling process?
Offender's physical, demographic and behavioural characteristics
What is the first assumption inherent in the FBI criminal profiling model?
Small groups of known offenders commit the same crimes as unknown offenders, thus have commonly shared individual characteristics that can be accurately generalised
What is the second assumption inherent in the FBI criminal profiling model?
Offenders who have committed crimes in the past are culturally similar to current offenders, being influenced by similar environmental conditions and existing with the same motivations
What is the third assumption inherent in the FBI criminal profiling model?
Individual human behaviour and characteristics can be generalised and even predicted from the initial statistical analysis of the characteristics and behaviour of very small samples
What are two types of offender in profiling typologies?
Disorganised asocial
Organised non-social
What is the disorganised asocial crime scene? (11 points)
� Spontaneous event
� Unknown victim
� Depersonalises victim
� Minimal Conversation
� Chaotic crime scene
� No restraints used
� Sex after death
� Body not moved
� Weapon left
� Physical evidence remains
� Offence probably committed outside
In what ways is the offenders life also seen to reflect the disorganised aspects of the crime? (Work/home)
-Live/work near crime scene
-No consistent relationships
-Lives alone
-Secret hiding places
-Unskilled work
-Shabby home
In what ways is the offenders life also seen to reflect the disorganised aspects of the crime? (Intelligence)
-Low educational achievement
-Below average intelligence
-Poor hygiene, badly dressed
In what ways is the offenders life also seen to reflect the disorganised aspects of the crime? (Family life)
-Father's work unstable
-Harsh inconsistent discipline
-History of being victim of abuse
-Low birth order status
In what ways is the offenders life also seen to reflect the disorganised aspects of the crime? (Others)
-Alcohol/drug use
-Nocturnal
-Significant behavioural changes
-No interest in media
-Anxious during crime
What the the characteristics of a post-event behaviour of a disorganised asocial offender?
� May return to scene of crime
� May attend victim's funeral
� May turn to religion
� May keep diary of activities
� May move house
� May change job
� May have personality change
What are the interviewing techniques to interview a disorganised asocial offender?
� Show empathy
� Introduce information indirectly
� Use counsellor approach
� Interview at night
What are characteristics of a non-social crime scene? (14)
� Evidence of planning
� Victim possibly targeted
� Personalises victim
� Controlled Conversation
� Controlled crime scene
� Submissive victim
� Uses restraints
� Aggressive acts before death
� Body moved
� Weapon taken
� Evidence destroyed
� More likely
What are the organised non-social offender characteristics? (Personality)
� Controlled mood
� Highly intelligent
� Masculine image
� Socially competent
� Sexually competent
� Charming
� Has relationships
� Lives with partner
� Relatively educated
� Consistent employment
What are the organised non-social offender characteristics? (Other)
� Will travel to commit crimes
� Geographically mobile
� High birth order status
� Follows media
What is the post offensive behaviour of organised non-social offenders?
� Also returns to crime scene
� Volunteers information
� Knows a lot about police work
� Anticipates questioning
� May move body
� May dispose of body to advertise crime.
What is the interviewing strategy for organised non-social offenders?
� Use direct strategy
� Be certain of details
� Be aware that offender will only admit to what he
must
What are criticisms of the FBI approach?
� The information used is generalised from limited populations
� Such generalisations may contain inaccuracies that might implicate innocent individuals
� Lacks theoretical rationale
� Lacks scientific rigor
� Uncritical reliance upon offender interviews
What are failures of the FBI approach?
� Failure to use appropriate control groups
� Failure to compare profiles with actual offenders when outcomes are known
� Failure to be forthcoming about the weaknesses of opinions and conclusions
What did David Canter say about the FBI's approach?
Criticised it and argued for a more systematic approach- inductive AND deductive methods.
What was Canter's approach?
The process of interpreting forensic
evidence and a thorough study of the individual offender and the victim in order to reconstruct specific individual behaviour patterns from which offender characteristics, motivations, demographics
etc. can be deduced.
What did Boon and Davis 1992 say would be a good approach?
A 'bottom-up' approach - working with details of the crime and building up
specific associations between the offences and the offender's characteristics.
What are the assumptions of the deductive approach? (first 3)
� No offender acts without motivation
� Each offence should be investigated as its own behavioural and motivational existent
� Some offenders have unique behaviours/ motivations that should be individuated from other similar offences
What are the assumptions of the deductive approach? (second 3)
� All human behaviour develops uniquely, over time, in response to environmental and biological factors
� MO behaviour can evolve over time and the commission of offences
� Profiling is a process and not a result - therefore it is an on-going dynamic, cri
What are the advantages of the deductive approach?
Profiles tend to be more specific
Emphasis on victiminology- may indicate motivation
Reduces investigator bias- only behavioural evidence in the case at hand should influence the final profile
What is a disadvantage of the deductive approach?
Time consuming and involves a multi-disciplinary team
What did Canter say about the scene of crime characteristics in his approach?
Shares the view of the FBI that these will reflect characteristics of the offender (notion of consistency between offending and nonoffending behaviour) - BUT he proposes that the dichotomy set by the FBI is too simplistic.
What did Salfati 2000 analyse to show an evidence of consistency?
247 British single offender-single victim murders (dichotomised between expressive and instrumental violence). Found consistency in 55% of the cases.
What is signature vs modus operandi?
� Modus operandi (method of operation - dynamic, learned behaviour which changes over time as the offender become more experienced - it involves only those actions necessary to commit the crime)
� Criminal signature (significant personality identifiers th
What distinguished MO from signature?
A statistical technique known as smallest space analysis
What is involved in smallest space analysis?
Central region- all variables common to all three areas
Intruders
Raiders
Invaders
What are geographical patterns?
Employs Environmental Psychology - Offender's mental maps - comfortable territory, buffer zones and decay function.
What are temporal factors?
Change and Development - many profiling techniques presume consistency in offences committed by a single perpetrator, but Canter looks at the offending 'career' - organised crime scene may indicate that this isn't a first offence.
What is the circle theory of environmental range?
Rossmo (2000) suggests that in general. criminals offend close to their homes (or other base) and the number of offences
drops off with increasing distance from the base.
What is jeopardy surface?
� Computerised analysis of point pattern target sites
� Produces a 3-D probability distribution known as the jeopardy surface.
� Height is an indicator of the likely location of the home or work place of the offender.
� Predictive power is related to the
What is crime mapping and routine activities theory (RAT)?
� Routine activity theory starts from the principle that any crime requires
three circumstances to coincide:
� (1) a motivated
offender
� (2) a suitable victim
� (3) the absence of a
capable guardian.
What does RAT not address?
� RAT does not address the question of why offenders commit crimes
What does RAT expect?
Since most of a person's activities are confined to a few fairly limited areas: where they live; where they work; where they socialize and so on. It might be expected, then, that a person's offences will also be limited in the geographical area in which t
What are mental maps?
Individuals construct mental maps of the
areas they know. These are not
absolutely accurate.
They embody the person's experience
and perspective on the area.
The distribution of linked offences may
reflect the offender's mental map of the
area.
What are the identification aims of geographic profiling?
Identify which a number of offences are linked (e.g. carried out by the same offender or offenders) and which are not, which helps to focus investigations.
What are the prediction aims of geographic profiling?
Identify which a number of offences are linked (e.g. carried out by the same offender or offenders) and which are not, which helps to focus investigations.
What are the understand aims of geographic profiling?
Predict characteristics of the offender(s) responsible for a series of offences (e.g. where they are likely to live; what sort
of knowledge they have of a particular area) to help target investigative efforts and prioritise suspects.
What are the identification aims of geographic profiling?
Understand the link between offending and location such as why certain places attract more crime than others and why, even in 'high crime' neighbourhoods, some addresses are repeatedly and some are left alone.
In what ways does geographic profiling?
Help police and other official bodies target crime prevention resources in the right areas and in the right sorts of ways.
What are the three main geographic profiling models?
RIGEL: Developed by Kim D. Rossmo
DRAGNET: Developed by David Canter
Crimestat: Developed by Ned Levine
What are the main differences between the profiling models?
Calculations, Cost, Interface, and Output.
What does Dragnet do?
Dragnet, a computerized system which uses
information about the location of offences helps to predict where an offender is likely to live.
What does the map produced by Dragnet do?
Suggests probabilities that the offender responsible is based in different regions. (Jeopardy surface)
What is supporting evidence for Dragnet?
� Godwin and Canter (1997) 85% of the offenders lived inside the circle encompassing their offences.
� Koscis and Irwin (1997) confirmed this looking at serial rapes and arson attacks in Australia.
� Koscis and Irwin - this doesn't appear as strong to hol
What did Snook et al 2005 examine?
Offence locations of 53 serial murderers in Germany. In 63% of cases the killer lived within 6 miles of where the bodies were found.
� Younger offenders travelled shorter distances
� Killers with higher IQs travelled further,
What does Snook et al's 2005 research suggest?
1) experience and intelligence influence killers' attempts to disguise their crimes.
2) information about the dispersal of offences may indicate some general characteristics of the offender responsible
What components does Geographic profiling have?
Quantitative (objective)
Qualitative (subjective)
How do you prepare to produce a geographical profile?
� examination of case files - investigation
reports, witness statements and autopsy reports
� inspection of crime scene and arial
photographs
� discussion with investigators/crime analysts
� analysis of neighbourhood crime statistics
� study of street, zo
What are the three central elements to geographical profiling?
Crime location
Target backcloth
Hunting typography
What is important in crime location for geographical profiling?
<ultiple sites per crime (encounter,
attack, murder, body disposal)
� Produces 8 possible 'crime location sets'
� Victim encounter site suggests the organisation and mobility of the offender
� Research has show that there is a high level of consistency in
What is a problem in crime location?
Police may only know the body disposal site
What is target backcloth in geographical profiling? (6)
� Refers to spatial opportunity structure
� Configured by temporal and geographic distributions of suitable targets/victims across the physical landscape
� Victim location and availability are key to determining where offences will occur
� Offenders may e
What is target backloth influenced by?
� May vary according to neighbourhood, time, day of the week, season and possibly police presence
� Influenced by built and physical environments - national boundaries, roads, land use etc.
What is hunting typography in geographical profiling?
� Predatory criminals employ various hunting styles - affects spatial distribution of crime sites
� Some styles mean that this analysis is inappropriate
� Most classification systems only describe the final spatial pattern and not the process that produce
What are 4 victim search methods?
Hunter - search from own home
Poacher- search based on own activity sites
Troller - opportunistic
Trapper - assumes a position that allows the
encounter with a victim which is under their
control - most female murderers
What are three methods of victim attack?
� Raptor - attacks victim upon encounter
� Stalker - follows upon encounter and then
attacks
� Ambusher - entices victim to a specific
location before attacking - bodies typically
located on offender's property - often
select marginalised victims
Who had similar victim/attacker ideas?
� Canter's 'marauders and commuters' similar to Rossmo's 'hunters and poachers'
Why is there a generalisation problem?
� Problem of generalising between Europe and America - offence circle data
Who looked at the fallacy of accuracy in offender profiling?
Petherick 2005
What is the fallacy of accuracy in offender profiling?
� Two distinct issues in evaluation of offender profiling:
� Accuracy
� Utility
� Accuracy would suggest a direct relationship between the profile and the convicted offender's characteristics.
What did Hazelwood et al 1996 argued against Petherick 2005?
Profiling is only an investigative tool used to narrow down the pool of potential suspects
- Not a means of identifying a particular person
What are problems with accuracy in offender profiling?
� The profile may be accurate but the information is not utilised by the SIO - the suspect not apprehended
� The profile may be incredibly accurate, but too general to serve any useful value (gives no investigative guidance)
� A profile without utility is
What did Jackson et al 1997 say is successful profiling?
� The number of 'hits' scored by profiles
� It provides a wider scope of assistance than just producing a profile (e.g. interviewing technique)
What did Rossmo 2000 say was successful profiling?
It must assist in the decision making process
What did Howitt 2006 say in the introduction to Forensic and Criminal psych?
There is a substantial quantity of research into profiling as a means of exploring, specially the relationship between crime scene characteristics and offender
characteristics.
What did Dowden et al 2007 study?
Advances in offender profiling - A systematic review of the profiling literature over the past three decades." 132 published articles
What did Dowden et al 2007 do?
� Conducted a content analysis of these
� The majority (30%) are discussion papers (what is?
When can it be used?)
� The authors rarely publish multiple articles
What did Dowden et al 2007 find?
� They lack statistical sophistication
� Articles based on quantitative exploration (inferential
statistics) yield more robust conclusions
� But 2/3 had no statistics
� Prior to 1995 only 12% had stats
� Since 1995 50% (41% inferential)
� Generally lack a
What assumptions are tested in profiling?
� The relative stability of offending behaviour over time.
� The consistency of offender's behaviour
between his (sic) criminal and non-criminal
domains
� The associations between crime scene
behaviour and background characteristics
of the offender
How accurate is profiling? Holmes 1989
� 192 offender profiled cases
� Led to 88 arrests
� BUT in only 17% of these did the profile contribute to the arrest.
Criticisms:
� No control group used for comparison
� Statistical techniques not described (therefore impossible
to replicate or assess v
What did Pinizotto & Finkle do in 1990?
Investigated whether professional profilers would be more accurate than detectives, clinical psychologists and students in their profiles of two closed cases (a sex offence and a murder)
What did Pinizotto & Finkle find?
� Profilers produced richer more detailed profiles which were
more accurate in relation to the sex offence
� Detectives more accurate on murder case
What are problems with assessing accuracy? Turvey 1999
� Issue of subjectivity of the interpretations of whether the offender's characteristics match those of the profile
� A profiler's accuracy can only be proven once the offender has been caught and convicted
� BUT convictions and acquittals are not factual
In Copson's study 'police attitude towards profiling', how useful was profiling? What percentage of murder, arson, rape and abduction were solved?
Murder- 112- 52%
Arson - 4- 100%
Rape - 40- 57%
Abduction - 3-100%
What is generally the attitude towards profiling?
Luke warm
What are aspects of usefulness do the police find in profiling?
� Lead to the identification of the offender (3% of cases)
� Furthered the understanding of the case/offender (61%)
� Expert opinion reassured officers' own judgments (52%)
� Offered structure for interviewing suspects (5%)
� Other (2%)
� Profiling not fo
How have the police requests for the assistance of a criminal profiler?
� 1981 - 1
� 1994 - 76
� 2005 - 120+
� 2000-2005 - 500+
What impact do profiles have on decision making according to Villejoubert, Almond & Alison 2008?
conducted a cognitive study examining how the receivers of profiles interpret the claims made within the profile.
� In honesty most of the claims can not be
expressed with certainty
� they are merely levels of probability
� thus should be accompanied by a
How should uncertainty phrases be provided?
Verbal or numeric
� Possibly, probably, unlikely , 60% chance...
� Where an uncertainty phrase is lacking one would assume that this factor is a certainty
What did Collins & Alison 2002 conduct a content analysis on?
26 profiles produced by a number of different profilers
� Only 54% of the claims were accompanied by an uncertainty phrase
What did Almond et al do in 2007?
Found that in 2005 only 18% of claims were un-quantified
� Thus demonstrating an improvement in practice, but left us wondering how the quantifiers affect the interpretations of claims made by the senior investigating officer (SIO)
What did Villejubert et al 2008 do?
� Manipulated the quantifiers used, the base rates of characteristics and level of perceived dangerousness in
hypothetical cases.
What did Villejubert et al 2008 find?
� N = 70 opportunistic participants
� On-line questionnaire
� They found that uncertainty claims were interpreted differently by different people.
� Some phrases communicate :
� Very low probability 'somewhat, doubtful, improbable'
� Chance level probabil
What was associated with a higher judgement of the veracity of the claim?
Verbal as opposed to numerical expressions of uncertainty which were associated with a high base rate claim
What happened when the higher the level of dangerousness was associated with the claim characteristic?
More likely it was to be true
Due to the biasing effects of base rates and dangerousness of claims, what should be recommended?
BIA need to counterbalance these effects in their communications with SIOs by tempering their uncertainty claims in accordance (e.g. if a dangerous claim is made reduce a probable to a possible).
What did Mokros and Alison say about offender profiling?
There is no positive linear relationship for any of the comparisons - Homology assumption is too simplistic to provide a basis for offender profiling
Is profiling often used? Tores et al 2006
Not a lot, although some professions believe they know a lot about it. Under 25% felt it was valid
What did Goodwill & Allison 2007 say about Mokros & Alison's Homology assumption?
The homology assumption may hold in some cases and not others - in absence of extreme aggression, predictions of age couldn't happen
What were Goodwill & Allison's 2007 good and bad points about offender profiling?
Studying offender behavior at a general level may be productive in generating background information about the offender at a general level.
However, in utilizing a large bandwidth it is unlikely that there is enough fidelity in the model to generate detai
What did Alison et al (2003) recommend for profiling?
Profiling be treated with extreme caution in criminal investigations and should not be used as evidence in the courts until research has proven its predictive validity
Why is profiling research flawed?
Studies that generalise findings from limited population samples of incarcerated offenders are arguably missing datasets from the most intelligent criminal populations